It may seem early for 2018 Oscar predictions, but distributors are already figuring out what they’ve got and how to sell it. And as studios reveal trailers and footage, they also show tell-tale signs of strength and weakness as they slot movies after Cannes, or before the fall festival circuit, or plunk their bets on expensive year-end dates.
Each year starts fresh with a few Oscar hopefuls emerging at the Sundance Film Festival, followed by studio intros of buzzworthy titles at CinemaCon and several high-profile Cannes Film Festival entries in May. So here’s a breakdown of awards campaigns that have already begun. There’s plenty of mystery waiting down the pike, from Clint Eastwood’s “Sully” and Martin Scorsese’s “Silence” to Warren Beatty’s Howard Hughes movie “Rules Don’t Apply,” which has started the preview process heading toward a fall Fox release.
The Oscars are sticking with Sunday for the next three years. For 2018, the Oscars are slotted for the last Sunday of the shortest month of the year (Feb. 28, 2016; Feb. 27, 2018). This year’s Oscars took place on Sunday, Feb. 22. The nominations period ran from Dec. 29 to Jan. 8 and nominations were announced on Jan. 15. Final voting ran from Feb. 6 to Feb. 17
That gap of 29 days between the announcement of the nominations and the beginning of final voting equals this year’s, which was one of the longest ever. And, like this year, there will be a wait of 45 days to know the winners. Ratings were up for the Oscars, though much of that boost could be due to the box office success of the Best Picture contenders.
With this year’s Academy Awards nomination ballots due Jan. 8, some of the various guild contenders, usually a reliable signpost of Oscar potential, were announced after that date. The actors, producers, writers and art directors did get in before the cut-off.